FBA's work with Ethiopia

Ethiopia is a military and political regional power in the Horn of Africa. It is the continent’s second most populous country, with more than 120 million inhabitants belonging to over 80 different ethnic groups.

Ethiopia is a federal republic based on ethnic federalism, in which the regions enjoy extensive self-governance. The system was created after the 1991 war to recognise the country’s diversity, but it has also contributed to ethnic tensions.

The federal government entered into a full-scale war with the northern region of Tigray during 2020–2022, which had devastating consequences for the civilian population. The number of casualties is estimated to be up to 600,000 people. The war ended with a cessation of hostilities agreement signed between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front in November 2022. During 2025, the situation in Tigray has become increasingly tense due to internal power struggles within the region.

At the same time, a violent conflict broke out in Amhara in 2023 between the government and the Fano militia. The situation is characterised by intense fighting, abuses against civilians, and growing mistrust between the region and Addis Ababa. In parallel, the long-standing conflict in Oromia between the government and the Oromo Liberation Army continues.

The federal government’s attempts at centralisation face strong resistance from regional actors, further exacerbating ethnic and political tensions. Taken together, the tense situation in the country risks having serious consequences both nationally and for the entire Horn of Africa.

Disarmament of Armed Groups

Since early 2024, FBA has provided support, advice and capacity development in security promotion and transitional security for the National Rehabilitation Commission, which was established as part of the cessation of hostilities agreement.

FBA has supported the commission through trainings, as well as its regional offices and other local authorities through workshops (Training of Trainers) on the sustainable reintegration of former combatants, with a focus on economic opportunities in four regions (Amhara, Afar, Oromia and Tigray). FBA will expand these workshops to additional regions to ensure closer alignment with local contexts.

FBA also offers support to other Swedish government agencies and to actors from other countries to strengthen international coordination of the collective support to ongoing demobilisation efforts.

Dialogue and Peace Mediation

In addition to its ongoing support to the National Rehabilitation Commission, FBA has since March 2025 undertaken exploratory work to enable support for dialogue and peace opportunities in the country.

Both Tigray and the rest of Ethiopia are at a critical juncture. Although a cessation of hostilities is in place and large-scale fighting has ceased, key conflict drivers – such as political marginalisation, territorial disputes and economic exclusion – remain unresolved.

Moreover, shifting power dynamics, political and military alliances and unresolved issues increase the risk of renewed instability and escalation. At the same time, the federal government in Addis Ababa is under considerable pressure to prevent further escalation ahead of the national elections scheduled for 2026.

Against this backdrop, the Ethiopian government requested support in March 2025 from the Nordic countries to assist with dialogue and peace efforts with Tigray. The request was initially directed to a broad group of countries, including Germany and the United States, but a specific request was addressed to the Nordic countries, referring to their neutrality and lack of historical interests in relation to Ethiopia.

At the request of the Swedish Embassy, FBA conducted an analysis of the current situation in Tigray and mapped relevant actors to engage with in support of mediation efforts.

In close consultation with the Embassy and Sida, FBA has initiated dialogue with the civil society organisation Justice for All (JFA). The aim is to jointly develop regional initiatives for conflict resolution and peacebuilding.

Cooperation with JFA is expected to strengthen FBA’s network at both federal and regional levels, given the organisation’s strong legitimacy and long-standing collaboration with Swedish partners.

FBA will in particular explore opportunities to work with JFA in areas such as reintegration, self-demobilisation of youth, intergenerational dialogue and regional peace dialogues, with a focus on Amhara, Tigray and Afar.

FBA has also been approached by Ethiopia’s National Dialogue Commission (NDC) to support the commission’s mediators. This work is currently under preparation.