What does research say about the conflicts of the future?

Today’s world is one of evolving conflicts and political unrest. In 2023, more conflicts were ongoing than at any time since the end of World War II.

This is the opening line of a recent post on the FBA blog by Johanna Malm, Head of Research at FBA. In the post, Johanna presents the results of a mapping of global conflict trends in the coming years. The mapping was conducted by FBA's research team with input from members of​ FBA's international research working groups.

– We have mapped the trends that are expected to shape the global conflict landscape in the coming years. The analysis is the result of a process in several steps and is based on expert assessments from leading researchers in peace, security and development, as well as published scholarly literature, says Johanna Malm.

Both well-known and lesser-known trends

Important trends identified by the researchers include climate change, democratic backsliding and the growing role of hybrid threats. Other, perhaps less well-known phenomena are also addressed. One example is the growing role of authoritarian states as peace mediators.

– It has become an increasingly complex task to support peace processes. Mediators must succeed at both the local and international levels to reach peace agreements that all parties can adhere to. Autocratic states have recently become more active as peace mediators, which presents both opportunities and risks.

– It can certainly make mediation efforts more effective in the short term, but if peace processes are not anchored in the multilateral system and in democratic values, they risk becoming less inclusive and therefore less sustainable, says Abdalhadi Alijla, senior researcher at FBA who has also worked on the summary.

Part of the Strategy for Peace, Security and Stabilisation

The analysis of global conflict trends is part of FBA's work on the Swedish government’s Strategy for Peace, Security and Stabilisation for 2024–2028.

– The analysis was conducted as part of FBA's work to operationalise the strategy, a task we are undertaking together with our sister agency Sida. But it is important for everyone to understand global conflict trends, so we hope that the analysis will be used widely both within the agency and among others interested. It is the purpose of the blog post to share this knowledge, says Johanna Malm.